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Prediction for CME (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-14T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28157/-1
CME Note: Bright nearly full halo CME with the bulk portion to the west in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Current SOHO data gap. The source is a X2.8 class flare from AR13514 (N05W54) peaking at 2023-12-14T17:02Z. The source is visible across all SDO/AIA wavelengths with clear dimming signatures to the SE of the eruption in SDO/AIA 193/171/211. Corresponding brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. An EUV wave is clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 traveling to the SE towards disk center and along the western limb. The EUV wave appears to correspond with a large shock in the coronagraph imagery. Post-eruptive arcades are visible around 2023-12-14T19:00Z in SDO/AIA 171.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T07:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T02:03Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
Event id="370"
expected arrival time: 2023-12-17T02:03:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 4
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 50

From SIDC Ursigram Issued: 2023 Dec 15 1232 UTC:

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 17:24 UTC on December 14. The CME is associated with a X2.8 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3514, along with a Type II and Type IV radio burst. The CME is directed primarily to the West from the Earth perspective. Due to the location of CME origin, a glancing blow to the Earth's environment can be
possible late on December 16 – early on December 17.

Also:
A faint CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around
07:39 UTC on December 14, directed towards the North-West from Earth
perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated to M5.8 flare
from NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. As the later CME is much faster than the former, they are expected to merge into each other.
Lead Time: 44.72 hour(s)
Difference: 5.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-12-15T10:49Z
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